Friday, June 3, 2011

Two Lists In Defense of Russ Adams

At its core, baseball is a wonderfully precise game sandwiched by two humongous slices of random -- the postseason and the amateur draft.

Every fall, the methodically revealing regular season gives way to playoff series of irrepressible volatility. To the chagrin of some, the game’s finely tuned averages descend into a month of total statistical anarchy. I call it a beautiful anarchy. Then again, I’m not a Cubs fan.

Every summer, the complex and meticulously crafted system of player development begins anew with the hopelessly speculative exercise of the amateur draft. Without belaboring the obvious, it’s safe to say that the draft serves a different purpose in baseball than it does in other sports. It’s long (like, 40 round long) and its primary purpose is to project how good draftees will be in 3 to 5 years, not how good they are now. Naturally, the MLB amateur draft produces a much higher degree of variability as a result.